Situation Report: Things Fall Apart

Dave Troy
6 min readFeb 6, 2022

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A global hybrid war is now underway. How we perceive and react to it is up to us.

A Global Hybrid War Unfolds…

There is no way to sugar-coat this: we are in the opening phases of a global war. It is possible, in the next few weeks, that extraordinary actions will be taken that could avert or forestall it. But we have entered into a cone of decreasing optionality, where choices become fewer and outcomes less certain.

Staged Trucker Convoys

Since last week, truckers have been clogging the streets of Ottawa and roiling the Canadian government. Ostensibly they are protesting COVID mandates, but the situation appears to be the first salvo in a global coordinated effort to disrupt consumer and military supply lines. The Canadian protests have been principally organized by Tamara Lich and B.J. Dichter, who have histories with white nationalism, “Yellow Vest” protests in 2019, and Canadian “Wexit” separatism via the so-called “Maverick Party.”

Tamara Lich; Ezra Levant; Jack Posobiec (Postmedia; National Post; Instagram)

Folks seeking to psychoanalyze this particular shard of the Canadian psyche needn’t bother, because this entire exercise is deeply connected to Putin’s global Fifth Column operation. This is Putin invading Ottawa, straight up.

They have raised over $10 million so far in support of the protest, but the funds have been seized by GoFundMe on advice of law enforcement. Now, advocates are outraged that the funds were “stolen” by GoFundMe when they canceled the fundraiser and announced they would donate the funds to charities designated by the organizers; they have now, however, explicitly said that all donors will be automatically refunded.

Ezra Levant, founder of Canada’s Rebel News has been driving the promotion of this effort along with his former employee Jack Posobiec. Levant has been known for organizing various GoFundMe fundraisers for far-right personalities in the past. In 2020, he organized one for Infowars employee Millie Weaver after she had fraudulently implied that she had been arrested in connection with her QAnon-oriented propaganda film, Shadowgate. (In fact, she was arrested because of a domestic dispute with her mother.) Levant raised $175,651 CAD for her fabricated “legal defense.” It is unclear how this or other fundraisers Levant has organized did not result in wire fraud charges. Had such charges been brought in 2020, this current situation may not be unfolding the way it is. Even donor Ali Alexander was pissed off.

Promotion by Elon Musk, Ezra Levant, Ron DeSantis, Jordan Peterson, Ted Cruz, Ken Paxton. (Twitter)

The Ottawa invasion has been promoted by a long list of fifth columnists including Elon Musk, Steve Bannon, Ted Cruz, Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Jordan Peterson, Joe Rogan and January 6 insurrectionist, Texas AG Ken Paxton. While this is all troublesome and very much indicative of Putin’s Canadian network being activated, what’s even more concerning is the emerging global scope of the trucker convoy activity.

Directory of Truck Convoy Telegram Channels (source: World Freedom Convoy Telegram, Jan 28)

European convoys are expected to converge in Brussels on February 14. Prior to that, there appear to be plans to occupy each European capital on February 7.

However, efforts in Canberra, Australia to spark a similar movement began on Friday, January 28 and resolved peacefully a few days later. Intelligence agencies must now have clear notice of this operation and will have some ability to disrupt the formation of blockades.

Controlled Economic Collapse

Back in November, Lt. Gen. Mike Flynn started talking about “controlled economic collapse” that would be coming as soon as December. He implied that the Democratic party would inflict this so as to cancel the 2022 elections. Watch:

At the time it was difficult to guess what he might be referring to — assuming that he was engaged in projection. The December debt ceiling limit was one possibility, as well as the possibility of a government shutdown combined with action from Russia and/or China. Now we see the contours of what he might have been hinting at: Putin’s current plan to invade Ukraine, probably around February 20th, and the possibility that Xi may move on Taiwan at the same time. Notably, Flynn is on Putin’s side. Here he is talking about what a strong leader Putin is:

And Flynn has been providing aid and support to the truck convoys. Here he is promoting the effort on Telegram:

And on the “In The Litter Box” podcast with the pro-Trump propagandist “catturd” Flynn said that a “black swan” event (one that surprises many people, per N.N. Taleb) would occur in the next several months that would prevent us having an election in 2022.

Additionally, his role was described as one of “strategist” with respect to the trucker convoys, as transcribed by Karen Piper:

It looks as though Flynn and Putin have aligned to disrupt supply chains, accelerate economic disruption, and encircle world capitals in ways that hinder NATO response to Putin’s aggression in Ukraine.

To return to Ezra Levant, Rebel News has been at all of this a long time. This interview with his former associate Caolan Robertson, and how he was radicalized and used, is extremely informative:

The site Antihate.CA says “The ‘Freedom Convoy’ Is Nothing But A Vehicle For The Far Right” while the Canadian “National Observer” says of the trucker convoy protests:

With all this in mind, this exercise has the hallmarks of an op, complete with the potential for wire fraud and money laundering, and possibly a dry run for an American uprising.

I’d argue this isn’t so much a dry-run for an American uprising, but an American-powered uprising using Canada as a staging ground. Nearly a month ago, a website called a4justice.org started promoting a “Convoy to Save America” with fundraisers organized by Denby Morgan of Tennessee, a trucking hotbed.

A major US effort is already underway targeting Washington, D.C. with occupation:

We don’t yet know what date this might be targeting, or how real the effort might be, but if it’s going to happen I’d expect it to materialize in the next two weeks. I’ve also assembled a thread with evidence from multiple countries that’s worth checking out…

To Be Continued… Tomorrow

Assembling this information on the trucking situation has been a heavy lift. In the interests of time, I’m going to publish this installment now and add more on the developing situation in Ukraine tomorrow. I’d like to close with the words of my friend Olga Lautman who says of the current moment:

Something is very off. While I’m used to monitoring and dealing with pro kremlin propaganda today it is at its highest level in a long while. The activity is at levels I haven’t seen in years.

We’re entering the thick of things. May the better angels of our nature prevail, and deliver us from the fates contemplated by madmen.

We’re interested in the major historical trends that shape current events. Tips? Ideas? Drop us a line via email or Twitter DM. Please note: this analysis is historical and political in nature; it is not intended as financial advice and should not be taken as such. If you enjoy my work, please consider making a donation to World Central Kitchen, to support their work feeding people in times of need.

For an even deeper dive, check out my series, The Big History Behind January 6th and my audio series Oil, Gold, Crypto, and Fascism: How We Got Here and How to Fix It.

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Dave Troy

Investigative journalist addressing threats to democracy. Public speaker, writer, podcaster. @davetroy on Twitter. See davetroy.com for contact info.