This week has been full of contradictions. In some ways, it feels like the wheels are coming off the bus. But there are some positive signs, too. Let’s dig in!
What’s Happening Now
Monetary tensions remain at the center of the current moment. Inflation fears have piqued with a 6.2% increase in the Consumer Price Index for October. Goldbugs and Bitcoin cultists see this as a harbinger of the end times, prompted by irresponsible and excessive increases in the monetary supply brought on by COVID-related stimulus and years of quantitative easing. Others examining the supply chain see a snarled backlog of logistics snafus. We can argue about the reality of the observed inflation — the truth is probably some of all of the above—but regardless, it is real and is being spun in service of multiple goals.
This week saw an onslaught of crypto-boosting from a wide range of ideologues, including elected officials. Miami announced they are going to give citizens crypto-wallets. Noticing this, I tweeted about the situation in order to raise awareness about the history and factional alliances involved.
Once this tweet’s reach went past the range of sensible concerned people and reached the cryptocurrency cult, it sent them into fits of rage. I received multiple offers to “debate” my claims. One such offer was accompanied by an offer to donate $10,000 to a charity of my choice, a tactic I had seen offered to other perceived critics of cryptocurrency. This odd strategy generates a kind of moral hazard; not quite a bribe, but not quite a good-faith engagement either.
I’ve been increasingly alarmed to see the degree to which the Human Rights Foundation (producer of the Oslo Freedom Forum and other special events such as the strongly anti-Putin PutinCon) is driving cryptocurrency adoption.
Their claim, driven almost entirely by the organization’s chief strategist Alex Gladstein, is that cryptocurrencies help empower individuals and dissidents in the face of dictators, failed states, and confiscatory and inflationary currencies. This is, of course, a reasonable point to make and is sometimes true, but he and HRF have extended their stance to full Bitcoin maximalism, and seriously suggest that what’s good in Myanmar is good in the United States. This is nonsense, as crypto-maximalism is aimed specifically at disempowering institutions and democratic governance.
That HRF is endorsing the same kind of monetary policy as the John Birch Society, Koch Industries, and Putin strikes me as deeply ironic and strange, so much so that I intend to discuss it with Garry Kasparov, HRF’s chairperson. This all of course has earned me ad hominem attacks, various threats, and derision amongst the crypto-woke mob, with over 5.3 million impressions of my tweet thread. Factions of both the “left” and the “right” are merging to come out in support of the historical crypto-gold agenda.
In the end, this is a rehash of the 1933–1934 “Business Plot,” driven by the same industrialists, oil interests, and international fascism. Few really know that history and it presents differently because this time there are more bells and whistles, but this is simple revenge for the New Deal. We should see it in that light. We need to deleverage (collapse) the crypto market and make it useful as a currency again, not as a cult-driven store of value. This is a get-rich-quick Ponzi scheme dressed up as technology and it needs to stop. Once that bubble is burst, maybe something useful can be done with it. We should terminate Ponzi schemes and oppose fascism and the erosion democratic governance and institutions.
“Not-a-University” of Austin is launched by a grab-bag of provocateurs and useful idiots. Neither accredited nor degree-granting, a new libertarian-leaning “school” has been launched in Austin, funded in part by Palantir co-founder Joe Lonsdale. “If it’s good enough for Elon Musk and Joe Rogan, it’s good enough for us,” proclaims their FAQ of their Austin location. I’m sorry, as someone who has studied this network for far too long, this is the PayPal mafia parading as intellectuals while referencing village idiot Joe Rogan. Being contrarian is not, by itself, an intellectual exercise and these people all deserve each other in this shared enterprise. Bari Weiss, shit-stirring essayist and “Intellectual Dark Web” shill is another trustee. All of this is just sad and seems to be just another libertarian interrelated play designed to spawn a whole system of information operations.
US and China agree to work together on climate — maybe. This week the US and China announced a plan to work together on climate goals and around cutting emissions. This is of course subject to real-world conditions, and it remains to be seen whether such commitments are being made in good faith. To the extent this was an unexpected development, it seems like good news. However, with rising tensions in both Ukraine and China, one wonders if all of this is just window dressing on much larger underlying conflicts.
US warns Europe about possibility Russia may invade Ukraine. Just today, the US met with allies to discuss specifics of a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine. There is also speculation they may invade the Baltics. Many people I’ve talked with are concerned that tensions in Ukraine and Taiwan may erupt at the same time. Mike Flynn’s brother Charles is head of the US Army Pacific Command, which doesn’t really instill confidence in the stability of the current situation. With the rest of his family engaged in treasonous activity, it really stretches credibility to suggest that Gen. Charles Flynn is the best person for that post. Given the massive radicalization of current and former military, intelligence, and law enforcement personnel, we should be taking special care to ensure that we avoid provocations or other actions which may be misinterpreted to start a war, whether intentional or otherwise. We are on the edge.
New subpoenas by January 6th committee suggest movement in the right direction. This week the committee issued 16 new subpoenas against various people connected to the insurrection planning. Michael Flynn was the most notable name, in addition to Bernie Kerik (organizer of the Jan 6th war-rooms) and noted dark lord Stephen Miller. Several other people close to key figures like prior subpoena target Mark Meadows were also called. While there is skepticism that these people will respond and cooperate, the fact the committee has identified the correct network is a good sign. And if they don’t respond, it will become even clearer this is a criminal conspiracy which will increase public pressure further.
Squad votes against infrastructure bill. Several members of the so-called “squad” group of “progressive” legislators decided to vote against the President’s landmark infrastructure bill, even as several Republicans were persuaded to vote in favor for it, driven primarily by the promise of jobs in their districts. Instead of showing solidarity, the “squad” crew chose to deflect, some say using “DARVO” (Deny, Attack, and Reverse Victim and Offender) gaslighting tactics. I’m not going to invest time in dressing them down; it’s not worth it. But there are serious people and not serious people, and some people who are just information operations. I’m keeping an open mind, but I’m leaning toward the conclusion that these folks are the latter.
BREAKING: Steve Bannon indicted, case assigned to Trump-appointee judge. A few seconds after this edition was published, news broke that Steve Bannon had been indicted for contempt of Congress. And then news broke that his case was assigned to Trump appointee Judge Carl J. Nichols, who clerked with Clarence Thomas. Sigh… The large print giveth, the small print taketh away. Let’s hope justice still has a fighting chance in there somewhere.
What May Happen Next
Tensions are rising over the Olympics in China in February, with some calling for them to be cancelled or boycotted over human rights abuses there. Russia appears to be intent on mounting an invasion of Ukraine fairly soon, and as mentioned that may also trigger activity around Taiwan.
The December 3 debt ceiling increase remains of critical concern, and we can expect a steady drumbeat of crypto-shilling, fed-skepticism, and inflation scaremongering in the weeks ahead. Keep a steady head, be kind. It looks like it’s going to be a hard next few months.
We’re interested in the major historical trends that shape current events. Tips? Ideas? Drop us a line via email or Twitter DM. Please note: this analysis is historical and political in nature; it is not intended as financial advice and should not be taken as such.
For an even deeper dive, check out my series, The Big History Behind January 6th.
