Situation Report: How to pop the crypto bubble

What A Week It’s Been

The world is finally waking up to the idea that the January 6th insurrection was, at its root, connected to monetary policy. We’re in the early phases of this — it’s like snowdrops in springtime. But I can report that I’ve spoken with major media outlets and some other institutions about this, and they’re starting to get it.

For my part, I’ve decided to start cranking out various kinds of content, on my own schedule and terms, that help wobble the universe to accelerate a reckoning. This week, I produced over five hours of audio content in three live Twitter Spaces shows, which I’ve recorded for folks to listen to later. Here are links to those three programs, which are great on-ramps for understanding the current landscape.

We recorded three programs this week. End Times for Oil: Crypto, Gold, Radicalization, and January 6th, about the relationship between oil, monetary theory, gold, radicalization, and the January 6th insurrection. This is a good overall atlas for understanding what’s happened in the big picture. The Wizard of Oz, The Gold Standard, and Crypto is a fun discussion of how the famous book and movie can be read as a parable about monetary policy, and how those deeper themes map into the current landscape. And The Libertarian Roots of January 6th with Dr. James Scaminaci III is a terrific, deep dive into Austrian Economics, American libertarianism, and the rise of the Koch-backed Ron Paul campaign, and its many offshoots, several of which led to the insurrection on January 6th. Seriously, if you listen to these shows you will have a very good situational awareness of what’s happening right now, which is what we aim to provide. Please listen, and share.

What’s Happening Now

Time to pop the crypto bubble. I’m convinced the crypto bubble is on the verge of popping and as I’ve said, my aim is to accelerate that. There is a pretty clear strategy that can bring that about, namely to spark divisions between the incoherent factions that have gravitated to the space for a variety of reasons, some good-faith, some less so.

Speaking broadly, there are three distinct schisms to exploit in the crypto-cult church.

  1. Bitcoin vs. so-called ‘sh*tcoins.’ The former tends to attract “serious” investors who believe in the scarcity premise and the robust “sound money” proposition Bitcoin offers. Those investing in, well, everything else in the space represent a long-tail of get-rich-quick-schemers, kids, and innovators. This is a “big tent” filled with all kinds of people who can be sorted into more distinct audiences.
  2. Progressives vs. fascists. There are “progressive” and “liberal” people involved in the crypto space, many of whom are not aware of the history that informed its birth. They don’t know about Austrian Economics or goldbuggery or the John Birch Society; or, maybe they do and are dissembling (hi, Eric Adams and Andrew Yang). By contrast, there are people who are super devoted to that ideology. They would likely not call themselves “fascists” usually, but I will, namely because this is the tradition and networks upon which they are drawing support.
  3. Innovators vs. grifters. I have repeatedly stressed that there are good, well-intentioned people working on interesting ideas in the so-called ‘web3’ space that aren’t trying to overthrow governments or oppress anyone with hierarchical money. Unfortunately, these folks are lost in the cacophany of get-rich-quick Ponzi-chatter (see Winklevii, squawking about hyperinflation) that floods the space. The real innovators, all eleven of them (joking), should be afforded an audience. To do that, grifters and schemers need to be banished and silenced, sent back to their before-times jobs, or to find new ones.

Any of you are invited to use the Socratic method (i.e. ask questions) with your crypto-fan friends and family about their politics—especially over Thanksgiving. If they identify as progressive, ask them about Austrian Economics and Ayn Rand. If they’re fascists, make them own up to it. If they’re innovators, help them differentiate their views from the fascists. If they’re BTC fans, make them say why, and denounce the sh*tcoin grifters. More men are into crypto (and help code it) than women, so ask about how crypto helps ensure gender equality. We can all ask the questions that will turn this mania, which is predicated on viral transmission at Rt > 1.0, back to a Rt ≤1.0 value, which will keep it as the side innovation that it is instead of blowing up into a cultish Ponzi scheme that distracts and harms.

Rhetorically tying the entire crypto world to societal pariah freakshows (Austrian Economics, the John Birch Society, Ayn Rand, objectivism, Barry Goldwater, the gold standard, Koch Industries, the Council for National Policy, Mike Flynn, Steve Bannon, and January 6th) will force people who want to distance themselves to speak up loudly.

The resulting schisms will lead to media attention, which will lead to division, which will lead to outflow and a slower infection rate, collapsing the Ponzi schemes. Even them squawking about this article will bring attention to the strategy, so I dare them to do so. (Insert Big Ben Kenobi GMI energy here.)

Hillary Clinton denounces crypto as potentially destabilizing. There is a certain class of person, particularly men, that will take anything that Hillary Clinton says and immediately and loudly reject it. The misogyny is strong against that woman, even though she tends to be right and correct far more often than not. I get it, she represents all the excesses and over-reaches that Austrian school devotees despise, but to them I say this: deal with it. She is saying what should have been said a while ago. At a Bloomberg conference this week, she came out and finally said that cryptocurrency can destabilize nations and threaten the dollar as a reserve currency.

“One more area that I hope nation-states start paying greater attention to is the rise of cryptocurrency — because what looks like a very interesting and somewhat exotic effort to literally mine new coins in order to trade with them has the potential for undermining currencies, for undermining the role of the dollar as the reserve currency, for destabilizing nations, perhaps starting with small ones but going much larger,” the former Democratic presidential candidate told Bloomberg.

This, while the Staples Center in LA was renamed to “crypto.com” stadium, which reminds me of the dot-com bubble, when for about ten minutes, the Baltimore Ravens stadium was named “PSI.net Stadium” before the company quickly imploded.

Meanwhile, Russia is starting to talk more about their plans to introduce a “digital ruble.”

Michael Flynn calls for theocracy. I get so tired of writing about Michael Flynn, because he’s the equivalent of a disgruntled postal worker, but with training and experience with psychological warfare and networked insurgency. He is really good at advancing menace, a theme the New York Times picked up on. This week he went on a big rant about the US being “one nation under God” and that we need to have “one religion.” The dude is just itching to start a civil war and it has to stop. One OSINT researcher posited today that Flynn got fired for failing to warn Obama about the Russian invasion of Crimea, and then met with Putin immediately after as thanks. It’s an interesting theory, but either way Flynn and his family of insurrectionist lunatics (specifically his brother Joe, son Michael Jr., who have participated in these ops; we don’t yet know what was in Charles’ heart on January 6th) needs to be brought to justice.

What May Happen Next

The debt limit ceiling deadline estimate has been extended to December 15 now, according to US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. I believe Congress will reconvene on this around December 3rd, giving them several days to f*ck around before facing the inevitability of “finding out,” if you’ll afford me this aphorism. I still believe this represents the most dangerous moment we have had since January 6th, as I believe people still underestimate the degree to which the GOP has been taken over by libertarian thugs, and the degree to which the Democratic Party has been infiltrated by LARPers like Sinema and Manchin. (Sinema seems to have some connections to crypto interests and Joe Lonsdale of Bari Weiss University/Palantir fame.)

Meanwhile, Sean Penn is in Ukraine filming things. Hot conflict is apparently already underway, with explosions reported in Donetsk. While there is no sign yet of an escalation around Taiwan, the “country” recently opened an office (don’t call it an embassy) in Vilnius, Lithuania, which, well, seems like a pretty weird thing to do geopolitically, even as it kind of makes sense business-wise. Is Taiwan expecting new leadership to arrive there soon, in the form of KMT/New Federal State of China allies in Russia?

Have a great holiday next week everyone! Stay safe, healthy, and sane!

We’re interested in the major historical trends that shape current events. Tips? Ideas? Drop us a line via email or Twitter DM. Please note: this analysis is historical and political in nature; it is not intended as financial advice and should not be taken as such.

For an even deeper dive, check out my series, The Big History Behind January 6th.

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